US housing forecasts to 2020 and beyond

By Larry

The further one looks to the future, more long term the prediction, the more difficult it gets to forecast trends in the housing market. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try, though. We are property management specialists based in Seattle and the surrounding areas. Our business is managing the property on behalf of our clients and providing a high standard of service to both landlords and renters alike. We work in Seattle, Bellevue, Everett and its surrounding areas and have extensive knowledge of the area. For long term forecasts at a national level, we look at what professional forecasters are saying. There are various companies out there that specialize in looking at and predicting future trends. Trading Economics, Forisk and NAR are three such companies. Here at Real Property Associates, we have had a look at some of the predictions and would like to share our findings.

The predictions and forecasts that we looked at are made by using a whole raft of information, from a variety of industries and markets, which is then put together and used to form an opinion. Opinions aren’t facts, this brief article is intended to be interesting to landlords, homeowners, and people considering buying a home for private or commercial reasons. It shouldn’t be seen as anything other than a piece that is interesting to look at.

There is a large generation that is coming into their house-buying years. Generation Y, the children of the baby boomers, have put off ownership but are now beginning to buy and will continue to do at least up until 2030. Sales of homes and condos are forecast to grow strongly to 2020.

Seattle has a growing population, the economy is robust and there is generally only two months’ supply of housing stock available. We manage rental property in Seattle and the surrounding area and aren’t surprised when Eric Fox, VP of statistical and economical modeling at VeroForecast says the Seattle will show the highest price appreciation in the States. He predicts that a rise of 11.2% is likely.

Forisk Research thinks that demand will outstrip construction of new homes, even though they feel that new homes will be built at the rate of 1.5 million per year until 2024 at least. Although house prices continue to grow they are still nationally $50,000 below the highs that were seen before the recession. How long they will take to recover depends on the level of new construction, but a common consensus is that if construction rates are moderate then the hot spots of San Francisco, LA, New York etc. should drive house prices back towards pre-recession figures in two or three years.

You will see that the general feeling is a positive one in terms of both growth and price increases in the housing sector. If you are interested in property in Seattle, Bellevue, Everett and its surrounding areas then please don’t hesitate to contact us to get our take on what these forecasts mean to you.

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